The Editor's Desk P1


28 Oct 2011

Quandary, Quandary, Quandary. Style and not substance is what EU politicians’ rabbit out of the hat with too many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’. How long will the new euphoria last? ExportNZ is calling for the Government to encourage more collaboration between export-focused, small-to-medium-sized firms. Other governments should consider this too. Good News: Israel is using security as another export tool; Egypt's chemical industries exports witnessed a remarkable increase by 24%; Azerbaijan raises aluminium exports, etc. Quote: EU - anything is too little too late!

25 Oct 2011

Governability, Governability, Governability. Assuring liquidity to the markets does not automatically mean EU can prove governability. Even liquidity, will it be enough? Time will tell but by then, damage will be done. Good News: Japan’s good export figures have enlightened the Chinese too. African countries have wakened up to the exports as Ghana, Tanzania gets vocal. New Zealand has joined USA in seeing meat export potentiality. China and India remains main target.

Quote: SMEs are world’s financial recovery key. 

18 Oct 2011

Wait, wait wait. West’s corporate and other cash remains unemployed despite attractive deals and waiting for the green direction. It is not helping the West or world economic towards recovery. Indeed, cash flowing more eastwardly where it is least needed. Good News: Sims takes over US East Coast export facility; Vietnam reported significant increase in Pangasius export in August, up nearly 30% y/y; Bangladesh’s apparel exporters eye $3b export to India; Eurozone industrial production sees surprise rise; etc.

Quote: Euro - a global risk! 

11 Oct 2011

Dexia, Dexia, Dexia: Dexia is the latest Eurozone crisis victim as Belgium buys 60.5% of the bank’s bad book. Obama administration may need to levy tariffs on China and 4 other Asian countries to stop America’s tellurian mercantile prevalence sliding. Good News: One firm in four in Ireland to hire more staff due to a significantly improved export performance. Likewise, Scotland’s food export is showing significant growth too. Alabama auto exports up 35pc from 2010; Pakistan's kinnoo exports are likely to go up next year as Indonesia has removed 35pc duty; German’s exports up m/m; etc

Quote: Corporate (export) earnings!  

7 Oct 2011

Export, export, export: Governments around the world are pushing to improve exports. USA States get $30m boost for small-business exports, Canada increases exports to emerging markets, India is urged to introduce urgent relief measures for its export sector, etc. Good News: USA’s July export numbers are good; India’s tea production up 3%; exports rise by 15% in August; Iran to export six domestically-built passenger planes; Scotland’s exports grew by 1.1% during the second quarter of 2011; Jamaica - NSWMA signs contract to export compost; China -Yiwu export and import up 24% from Jan-Jul; etc

Quote: Recapitalising the unknown factor!  


5 Oct 2011

Cancer, cancer, cancer: The Greek cancer is spreading in the Eurozone while talk about talk about talk continuous. When the Greece’s problems are sorted (or not), the collateral damage will far exceed (if it has not already) the Greek’s current requirements. Good news: Australia’s trade surplus jumps 72% as exports improve; UK -exports of British TV programmes rise; Scotland shows strong export growth; India’s export up by 44.2 per cent; Ethiopia’s August export performance has met 97.2% of the target; Turkey’s exports have increased to $10.72b in September, an increase of 16.4pc y/y; Bangladesh export to USA edges up in July; etc.

Quote: Hair Cut - Telly Savalas, Yul Brynner have made big screen names! 

3 Oct 2011

Pandora, Pandora, Pandora. The slow opening of the jar is releasing the banking evils. Despite cash rich balance-sheet and good profit, the corporate market’s shares are sliding. How far are we down the bottom? Good news: Honda to export engine components to Thailand from India; India’s handicraft exports surges by 22% to $ 452m during August; Philippines’s 12 regions’ exports up 44% to $294M; UK/Scotland’s exports showing the way for the business recovery; China factory activity picks up, export orders recover; Pakistan's food export rises by 33.5pc; etc

Quote: Happy New Quarter!  

30 Sept 2011

Order, order, order. At last, the long awaited an orderly Greek default is here. But only half! The emerging markets’ exporting machine has started slowing down due to the West. Good news:  India’s soybean meal exports to climb 25% on bigger crop; Infosys and Dell win highest Indian export awards; Iran’s carpet export to hit $600 million; Kenya’s meat export to Mid East countries is up; Vietnam - Hanoi’s exports hit USD7.16 bln USD in nine months; China hopes to broaden halal food exports; UAE free zone trade surges to $27.4bn; etc

Quote: Quality with competitiveness wins, always.


23 Sept 2011

Twist, twist, twist – FED’s ‘significant’ prospective has turned market dark red. IMF is a culprit too. Down-talk is unhelpful to a growth. Good news: Exports boost UK car output in August; Azerbaijan to export more electricity; Jamaican fertilizer producer secures 4,600mt Cuba export deal; Uganda earns sh11b from coffee exports; Asian economies become leading market for Chile exports; etc

Quote: Demography means growth! 


21 Sept 2011
Hesitation, hesitation, hesitation. Hesitation to solve Greece problem may end as accumulative Eurozone problems resulting into uncontrollable crisis. Now, Italy has been downgraded. UBS’s hole gets bigger. Will Gold top USD2000 this year? Good news: Airbus’s passenger planes to double over 20 years; Ukrainian grain exports rose in September, Sri Lanka targets US $10b export turnover in 2011; Philippine’s new export winners lead growth of exports; Pakistan’s textile export grows by 12.67pc to $2.2 billion; Iran to export computer games; Austria's export to Azerbaijan grows 74%; etc.     
Quote: Like a divorce, unpegging currency is hurtful.
19 Sept 2011

Rogue, rogue, rogue: UBS internal control failed to detect £1.3b rogue trading - nothing strange. Banking sector caused the world’s worse financial crises in 2008. Are banks trustworthy? Good News: Pakistan’s rice export surges 8.13pc; Singapore exports rise unexpectedly; Australia -proceeds from the export of energy resources grew by 27% ($175B) the last financial year; Vietnam’s exports to US up 20pc; UK sees Russian beef export potential; Egyptian cabinet took the decision to export gas to Israel; Italy to export waste to Dutch incinerators; Vietnamese businesses eye foreign markets; etc

Quote: Greece – in, out, in, out and do the Hokey-Pokey. That's what it's all about!  

15 Sept 2011
Inflation, inflation, inflation. Indian facts: inflation 9.78%, 11 bank interest rate rise, equities down nearly 20% y/y, export – slow down in the Western world -  is the emerging market giving us a signal? If Greece’s disorderly default is wrong now, when is the right time? Good news: China - Zhejiang's foreign trade import & export value achieved 202.45 billion USD, up 23.8%; South Africa brainstorms methods to boosts export in India, China; Australia's resources and energy exports soared by 27%; Vietnam: Seafood export poised to beat target; Iraq awards oil export project to Italy's Saipem; etc.

Quote: Money talks – but are you listening?  

13 Sept 2011
Tired, tired, tired. The world (including Eurozone itself) is tired of the Eurozone problem and wants it to be resolved, one way or the other, in order to turn the slowdown into a growth. But do the decision makers have power to do just that? Many countries have reported drop in exports in July but there are still some good news round: UK exports hit £280,343 million as South East leads the way; India's Exports Up 44.2 Percent; U.S. Agriculture Dept. raises Russian grain export forecast; SOUTH Australia's export $11.4 billion, up by $3 billion y/y; etc

Quote: Banks’ new motto – slash bonuses and increase salaries 

12 Sept 2011
Greece, Greece, Greece – the unavoidable word. The markets ended in red last week and the week started in the darker red. How long can Germany sustain European nations’ debt? Good news: Bulgarian wine export rate doubles; UK- emerging markets help boost Scotch exports; China -Hainan's export up by 24.8%; Small rise in the UK business confidence in August; Brazil’s economic boom attracts expats and Americans; India’s Balaji Amines eyes 50% export revenue in next 2-3 years; Pakistan’s trade policy sets export target at $26 billion; China’s auto exports hit a record high again; etc.

Quote: New measurement – magnitude of drop!  

9 Sept 2011
Crunch, crunch, crunch. The crunch time for Greece is pushed further away each day and all political motivated euphoria evaporates fast. The best day in Obama’s life was when he became the president (even that day was spoiled by incorrectly reading the Oath). Since then, it’s downward trend and now with no new rabbit in his hat, the Congress's response will be muted. USA’s recovery is vital to the world exports. Good news: Philippines poultry export potential increased by bird flu outbreaks in China and Vietnam; US exports hit a record high in July, South Korea’s car export up 13.9% y/y; Vietnam seeks rice export opportunities via UAE; Malaysia exports up 7.1% in July; Belarusian wood farms export $98.1m worth of commodities in Jan-Aug; India's Hyundai Motor to increase focus on export markets; etc.

Quote: Greece – a ghost of Lehman? 

8 Sept 2011

QE, QE, QE – The central banks are likely to print more money in many countries. The key, QE3 in USA, printout is widely expected. Lower US$ is certainly a friend of the exporters worldwide. The good news: Nepal’s export increases by Rs. 4b in a decade; total export value in Hong Kong up 9.3% in July; Belarus’s company,  Minsk, increases export dynamically; Ethiopia uncorked a new export with French wine-making partnership; Ghanaian company, OLAM, to double cashew exports; Ethiopia plans the leather exports of USD206m; etc

Quote: Gold - safe heaven or speculation? 


6 Sept 2011

Direction, direction, direction – or lack of it. The Eurozone have agreed to remain disagreed, giving mixed and uncertain vibes to the markets. Exporters are doing an extremely good job under the most challenging times. Good news: Scotland has offered online centre boost to the export firms; USA’s company, First Solar, bags $573 million for exports to Canada and India; Australia’s food manufacturer Primo's ‘Smallgoods’ business will create 600 news jobs and an export industry; Azerbaijan exported 51,000 tonnes of jet fuel; Vietnam – the domestic garment exports have surged; Bulgaria’s export-oriented companies recorded robust sales and strong profits in the first half of 2011, Vietnam has found a new opportunity of exporting seafood to US; etc.

Quote: Emerging markets – good growth but non-defensive.  


5 Sept 2011

USE, USE, USE. The whisper about United States of Europe has resurfaced. Can there be a rabbit (unemployment) in Obama’s hat (economy)? Western growth (or lack of it) is worrying exporters, large and small, worldwide. Inflation, infrastructure and slowdown in the emerging markets have added to the poor sentiments. Good news: India remain bullish on Q2 export growth, Australia: Aquila's Washpool coal mine to cost $368m that will provide about 80 Mtpa in additional export capacity; Indian synthetic textile producers hope to surpass export target citing new markets like Africa, Southeast Asia and South America; Turkey tops innovative exports list; etc.

Quote: Banks – the unbankable scenario!  


2 Sept 2011
PMI, PMI, PMI. Purchasing Managers' Index in both emerging & developed markets makes depressed reading even when there is a growth in the exports. Inflation and the weakness in the global economy are the culprits. Good news has continued to flow within the export sector. Pakistan’s leather goods exports show an uptrend (US$ 53.883m) in July, New Zealand’s export confidence for coming year hits 70%, Philippines sees more sugar exports to non-US markets, South Korea registers strong exports, Bahrain firm sees jellyfish export success, India's spices exports rose 22% during April-July, Vietnam’s exports to Japan up 30%, Ghana’s exports up 62.3% in 7 months, etc
Quote: World revolves on nations’ small exporters
1 Sept 2011
Boom, boom, boom.  Mike Walden, a Uni economist, says that USA is in the middle of an export boom - 13% from 9% during recession. Indian Minister of State for Commerce & Industry says US rating downgrade won't hurt Indian exports. Ireland says its export is thriving. Ukraine’s grain export is recovering. Armenia found vegetables export market in Georgia. Pakistan’s cementing company, LUCK, has improved 27% y/y based on exports. Belarus’ July export is at record high ($4bn). The list is endless.

Quote: Market is not economy – export is. 


30 Aug 2011

Ignore, ignore, ignore: European politicians have continued to ignore markets even when IMF has warned on a weakening global recovery. Perhaps the stronger EU nationals have a secret agenda. Good news: South Africa’s consumer demand grows, India’s growth improves, UK engineering firm Metalrax boost exports, Russia resumes sugar export, South Americans have not relied only on emerging markets to increase exports, Australian boat manufacturer has defined the trend and exported 10 boats, etc

Quote: Satnav failed to locate government bonds! 


29 Aug 2011
Perception, perception, perception. The perception of the world’s economy is changing by the day, unfortunately not so positively.   Could Qatari plugging billions into a Greek bank be better spent on the export markets?  Japan’s revolving door has produced a new PM who will face huge challenges - hope his financial background will help. Good news: Brazil’s latest export is farmers, global firms woo India’s $50 billion slumdog consumers, Pakistan has diversified exports destinations, USA’s solar product exports rose 83% last year on sales to China, Greece to export solar power to Germany, etc

Quote: All that glitters is not gold. 


26 Aug 2011

Woman, woman, woman. Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi, Margaret Thatcher and now Angela Merkel. Not an iron lady but like all German products, strong and durable. She is on the top of the women’s list of Forbes magazine. But is her throne crumbling. She matters not just to the Germans, the Eurozone but the entire financial world. Can she get ESFS through? Plenty of good news on export front.  DP World of Dubai buoyed by strong container trade, Diageo of the UK boosted by emerging markets, Azerbaijan may export fruit, vegetable to Russia and OCAR’s chemical products export tops $53m, India's engineering exports in July up by 187pc, etc

Quote: Stagnation sounds sweeter than recession.  


25 Aug 2011
Correction, re-correction, correction. Where are markets heading? Japan’s credit was downgraded and the Europe & America’s growth downgraded . The core problem, the Euro & the sovereign debts (incl. non-Eurozone), has not gone away yet (and not likely to be solved for a long time). Poland is struggling to sell apples and India’s apple crop is poor. So, the answer is simple. Good news: Vietnam’s Tra fish export up, Kenya’s tea export up m/m, S.Africa eyes China & Venezuela for maize exports, Ireland’s dairy sales up, Dubai-Iran trade grows, etc

Quote: Euro bonds – unite or not to unite is a question.  


23 Aug 2011
Oil, oil, oil. Plenty of excitement over Libyan oil but is it a prematured euphoria? QE3 is now a pie in a sky making USD stronger - a sting to the exporters. Despite gloom and doom, good news remains in plentiful. Russian air manufacturers find buyers, India’s Adani invests $10bn into Australian coal, Chinese Snow Beer’s global expansion, Brazil’s iron ore exports up, Ireland's trade surplus widens to record on dairy & medical exports, Azerbaijan raises agricultural export, etc. 
19 Aug 2011

Rates, rates, rates. The central banks in EM are raising interest rates to curve inflation while in the West the central banks are keeping interest rates low to improve growth and are ignoring inflation. It tells the tale. Vietnam faces setback in wood export to US & EU due to the Lacey Act – a federal crime if the wood was sourced illegally, either from illegal logging, stealing or originating from ‘suspicious’ sources. Good news – US’s broad export to China improved, China export buses to Burma, Taiwan relaxes restriction on export of high-tech exports etc.

Quote: The US Treasuries: The cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry!   


17 Aug 2011

Nonsense, nonsense, nonsense. No point of being an expert on reading companies’ financials when the markets are driven by the political nonsense. The major Eurozone partners agreed to disagree and SMEs worldwide will continue to bear the pain. Good news: Pakistan’s textile exports have surged, Canada invests $10m towards export growth, Estonia’s timber houses are hot export item, profit raised at UK’s Dyson, Canada’s new market (Vietnam), Scotland’s fishery export grows, etc.

Quote: Where do you put your money? Longs!  


16 Aug 2011

Euro, euro, euro. The Euro returns on top of the agenda, marked in the red ink, while the Europe’s export engine, Germany, run out of steam. Swiss exporters are experiencing difficulties too. Unlike, USA, India, China or even the UK, Europe is not one nation. Each Euro-zone politician has to consider his/her voters. So, what chance of seeing Euro being controlled by Frankfurt? Good news - Quanta has ordered 110 airbus to create 2nd airline, Myanmar (Burma) has exempted commercial tax for exporters to encourage export, Latvia’s exports grow 36.9%, Taiwan determined to export culture overseas, new Japanese company to export anime and other content, etc.

Quote: Sovereign debts will take not years, but decades to be solved. 

15 Aug 2011

Green, green, green: The week, the markets have started green. So, let us stick to the positive export news. Bajaj Auto (India) is positive on export over 3-4yrs, Dongfeng Motors (China) acquired buses orders from Tanzania & Peru, Israel is focusing on India & China instead of USA & Europe, although Japan’s G.D.P. slipped to 0.3% the export sector has revived, etc.

Quote: The EM (emerging markets) should not be viewed as one unit, but as individuals. 

12 Aug 2011
Dip, dip, dip. France’s GDP dropped, CPI dropped, export dropped. Is this a typical European scenario? Will short term selling ban be a help or a hinder? On a brighter side, GM is eyeing to export from Indonesia, Ericsson aiming to treat India as export hub, global seafood shortage invites more export, Ghana is offering more support to the exporters, Vietnam ‘s garment export is likely to rise by 20.5%, etc.
11 Aug 2011
Rumours, rumours, rumours. Was the Greek debt a rumour? Was the US downgrading a rumour? Is Italy next? It would be good to move from ‘D’ (deficit, debt & downgrading) to ‘E’ (export). Among slow growth reported by number of countries, there is positive news too. Honduras will start exporting pork, China's trade surplus jumps 41%, farm exports in Vietnam have surged in six months, Bangladesh reported substantial export growth in home textiles, etc. Where there is a will, there is an export!